Boast African reporting: Uganda is once again at a political crossroads as President Yoweri Museveni 81 years old positions himself for a seventh term in office nearly four decades after taking power. The move has set off fresh fighting and debate across the country and beyond about leadership, democracy, stability and the long term cost of prolonged rule in Africa. For a nation where most citizens have never known another leader, Museveni’s latest ambition is not just about one election, it is about what kind of state Uganda will become after 40 years under the same man. At stake is a complex legacy that blends undeniable achievements with growing authoritarianism, early revolutionary ideals with present-day power consolidation. Museveni once openly condemned African leaders who clung to office. Today, he is testing the limits of that very principle.
Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) has made it clear that the veteran leader remains its flagbearer ahead of the next presidential election. Having already won six elections since 1996 after initially taking power through armed struggle in 1986, Museveni is now seeking to extend his rule well into his ninth decade of life. His continued dominance has been enabled by far reaching constitutional changes. Term limits were removed in 2005 and in 2017, the age cap for presidential candidates was scrapped after a turbulent parliamentary session that descended into physical violence among lawmakers. Together, these amendments cleared all legal obstacles to Museveni’s indefinite stay in power. Supporters portray his candidacy as a guarantee of continuity and security. Critics see it as confirmation that Uganda has quietly shifted from a post-can onflict democracy into a personalised state built around one man and his family. To understand Museveni’s hold on Uganda, it is necessary to revisit his origins. Born in 1944 in Ankole, western Uganda, into a family of cattle keepers, Museveni grew up during the final years of British colonial rule. Like many of his generation, his political consciousness was shaped by the struggle for independence and the violent instability that followed it. After leaving Uganda to study economics and political science at the University of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Museveni was immersed in a hotbed of pan-African and revolutionary thought. The campus produced several future African leaders and liberation figures, and it was there that Museveni built networks that later proved critical. His rise accelerated in the 1970s under the brutal dictatorship of Idi Amin. Museveni became involved in armed resistance and later joined the coalition of rebel groups that, with Tanzanian military backing, overthrew Amin in 1979. Amin’s regime, remembered for mass killings, ethnic persecution and economic collapse, left Uganda traumatised and desperate for stability. When Milton Obote returned to power after disputed elections in 1980, Museveni rejected the outcome and launched a guerrilla war. After five years of insurgency, his National Resistance Army captured Kampala in 1986, ushering in what many Ugandans initially viewed as a new dawn.
Early Gains and International Approval
Museveni’s first decade in power earned widespread praise. Uganda emerged from years of chaos into relative calm. The economy stabilised and began to grow, averaging more than six percent annually for several years. Primary education expanded rapidly, and Uganda’s aggressive public health campaign helped slow the spread of HIV at a time when the epidemic was devastating much of sub-Saharan Africa. Western governments embraced Museveni as part of a new generation of African leaders—pragmatic, reform-minded and committed to economic liberalisation. International donors poured in aid, and Uganda became a showcase for post-conflict recovery. For many citizens, especially those who lived through the Amin and Obote years, Museveni’s rule brought a level of peace that felt invaluable. By the late 1990s, however, cracks began to appear. Uganda’s involvement in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo—alongside Rwanda—damaged Museveni’s international standing. The war, fought in support of Congolese rebel groups, led to accusations of human rights abuses and economic exploitation. Domestically, political tolerance narrowed. Opposition figures complained of harassment, selective prosecutions and increasing interference by security agencies. The promise that Museveni would eventually hand over power began to ring hollow. This shift became explicit in 2005 when the government removed presidential term limits from the constitution. The move directly contradicted Museveni’s own earlier writings, in which he blamed Africa’s troubles on leaders who refused to leave office. For many Ugandans, that moment marked the end of any illusion that he intended to oversee a democratic succession. The removal of age limits in 2017 reinforced that perception. The chaotic scenes in parliament during the debate—lawmakers physically fighting as security forces intervened—symbolised how deeply contested the issue had become.
Museveni’s longevity has been matched by the systematic weakening of opposition movements. Former allies who turned critics found themselves marginalised or targeted. Dr Kizza Besigye, once Museveni’s personal physician and a senior figure in the liberation struggle, became his most persistent electoral challenger. Since first contesting the presidency in 2001, Besigye has been arrested numerous times, charged with treason and other offences, and repeatedly blocked from campaigning freely. His continued detention on treason charges—following a controversial transfer from Kenya back to Uganda—has raised serious questions about due process and judicial independence. More recently, Robert Kyagulanyi, widely known as Bobi Wine, has emerged as a powerful symbol of generational dissent. A former pop star with mass appeal among young Ugandans, Bobi Wine transformed his celebrity into political mobilisation, directly challenging Museveni’s grip on the youth vote. His rise has been met with force. Arrests, beatings, campaign restrictions and violent dispersal of rallies have become recurring features of his political life. Security agencies have justified their actions on public order grounds, but local and international observers argue that the state is using excessive force to silence dissent. United Nations reports and rights groups have documented cases of abductions, use of live ammunition against demonstrators, and intimidation of opposition supporters, especially during election periods.
Media and Institutions Under Strain
Uganda still boasts a vibrant media landscape on paper, but journalists increasingly operate under pressure. Radio stations have been shut down, newsrooms raided and reporters detained or assaulted, particularly when covering protests or opposition politics. The judiciary, once seen as relatively independent, has also come under scrutiny. Critics accuse the government of promoting judges perceived as loyal to the ruling party while sidelining those who issue unfavourable rulings. High-profile confrontations between the courts and security forces—such as the 2005 re-arrest of suspects acquitted by the High Court—have undermined public confidence in institutional autonomy. Together, these developments paint a picture of a state where formal democratic structures exist, but real power is tightly controlled. Despite the criticism, Museveni retains a loyal base. The NRM argues that Uganda’s relative stability in a volatile region is no accident. While neighbouring countries have grappled with civil wars, coups and state collapse, Uganda has remained largely intact. Government officials point to the country’s role as Africa’s largest refugee host, sheltering millions fleeing conflicts in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and elsewhere. They argue that such openness is only possible because of strong, experienced leadership. The administration has also pursued foreign investment aggressively, courting partners from China, the Middle East and Europe. Museveni’s long-term vision is to transform Uganda into a middle-income economy by 2040, with infrastructure development and industrialisation at its core. To his supporters, Museveni is not a dictator but a seasoned statesman who understands the country’s fragility and refuses to gamble its future on untested leadership.
As Museveni ages, concerns about succession have intensified. His wife, Janet Museveni, serves as education minister, while his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, heads the armed forces. The younger Museveni’s rapid rise through military ranks and outspoken presence on social media have fuelled speculation that he is being groomed as heir apparent. General Kainerugaba’s controversial online statements—ranging from regional provocations to admissions of detaining political figures—have alarmed both domestic critics and regional observers. For many Ugandans, the possibility of a dynastic transition threatens to undo whatever institutional stability Museveni claims to have built. The NRM has offered no clear roadmap for leadership transition, reinforcing fears that power is becoming increasingly personalised.
Museveni enters this next phase confident, projecting vitality and authority. He continues to portray himself as a father figure to the nation’s youth, even as that same demographic overwhelmingly backs the opposition. His message remains consistent: Uganda is secure, and continuity is the safest path forward. Yet beneath that confidence lies uncertainty. A population that is young, digitally connected and politically restless is pressing against a system designed for permanence. The longer succession is postponed, the more disruptive it may become when change finally arrives. Museveni’s seventh-term bid is more than a personal quest for power. It is a defining test of Uganda’s political maturity, institutional resilience and capacity for peaceful renewal. Whether the country can navigate the tension between stability and democratic accountability will shape its trajectory long after Museveni’s era eventually ends.
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